What Comes To Pass

#1 With a Bullet

Well the results are in from the Taiwanese Election and brilliantly Chen has been re-elected, albeit by a small margin, in fact one which was very much in line with what the polls suggested.

The KMT are immensely annoyed by this outcome and as a result are calling for a recount, along with accusing him of setting up his own shooting in order to gather votes.

Naturally it's party time for me. A pro-independence candidate, hell bent on sticking it to the PRC now has all the mandate he needs to do exactly that. I somehow doubted that the Taiwanese people would vote for a party intent upon tying the island to China so firmly that it would effectively bind successive governments after listening to the current hissy fit Beijing is throwing over Universal Suffrage (threatening to invoke the State of Emergency clause of the Basic Law if things got 'out of hand' - dissolving Legco and ruling by proxy from the National People's Congress). 1 Country 2 Systems my ass.

Bombastic Cumulative Best Case Scenario:

1. Chen gets elected and starts whipping up a firestorm of independence, instead of sitting back and shutting up China foolishly make good on their offer to invade. (50% Likelyhood)
2. PRC gets its sorry proletariat ass kicked and the people get sufficiently pissed off to boot out the 'gov't' whilst the military isn't in a force capable of quelling unrest Tianamin Square style. (20% Likelihood)
3. Then Hong Kong gets independence, a flag which doesn't suck and can get back to its age old motto of "Lets just shut up and make money". (5% Likelihood)

Posted by John Swaine at March 21, 2004 12:27 AM