Tuesday saw a massive surge of violence hit Iraq as suicide bombers took an appalling toll on the civilian population.
There are two primary points to consider in reference to these attacks, the first is easily agreed upon by both pro and anti-war camps, the latter is a conclusion which I feel will be avoided by many in the media.
Naturally the first is that these attacks were devastating, murderous and bloody. A toll of 110 is painfully high and a grotesque loss.
However, here is where the opinions of the many, and myself will diverge.
Towards the end of the Vietnam War, on the verge of being destroyed outright, the Viet Cong and North Vietnamese Army launched a desperate full offensive upon the cities of South Vietnam at the start of the Vietnamese Tet holy festival. The fighting was brutal and initially American forces were pushed back. However over several days of fighting the US army had taken back all the ground captured by the VC and had massacred its enemies.
The VC and NVA were debilitated, militarily vanquished and largely demolished. It was an outstanding military victory for the US, however it was broadcast largely as a failure. As a result it proved pivotal in forcing the US out of Vietnam by fueling domestic protest in the states.
Since that onslaught, the principle that the US has a casualty threshold, which if surpassed will result in its capitulation has become an orthodox doctrine for America’s enemies the world over.
It is my belief that what we are witnessing is Al Qaeda’s Tet offensive in Iraq. A last gasp and desperate effort to deal a punishing blow to the coalition and Iraqi interim government in the hope that, just as it did in Vietnam, the US will withdraw.
Al Qaeda operatives have been suffering humiliating losses on the field of battle against the Iraqi police and counter terrorism forces, with hundreds being captured and killed. They simply cannot continue to fight a pitched battle and as a result must turn to the only means of fighting a superior force in light of the tactical supremacy of the American trained Iraqi defense forces. Suicide Bombings (only the most naive insurgent supporter still believes guerilla warfare works against the US, its overarching effectiveness as a battlefield doctrine was neutralized long before the end of the Vietnam war).
Al Qaeda, in the death throws of its Iraq operation will hope to kill as many Iraqis as possible to force the interim government into retreat.
The problem with this strategy is that the Iraqi interim government has no great enemies amongst the Iraqi media - what need is there for some heavily-editorialized journalist to tell you what’s going on when you can see it with your own eyes? There is no mass support for the insurgents in Iraq, a huge majority people are sickened and angered by their continuing terror operations in the country. There is quite simply no impetus to withdraw, capitulate or surrender. The Iraqi interim government doesn’t have a casualty threshold.
The time for this strategy was whilst the CPA was still in command of Iraq’s day to day running and security. Al Qaeda has missed the boat and now realizes this fact.
As Zarqawi noted in January that “the grip around the throat of the mujahidin has begun to tighten.” It is now apparent that the Iraqi Interim Government has done an awful lot of squeezing.
Later
John
Posted by John Swaine at July 29, 2004 05:37 PM | TrackBack